‘Weak leader’: Japan PM Ishiba has his work cut out on economy, US ties after surviving parliament vote, say analysts

Shigeru Ishiba’s re-election as Japan’s prime minister on Monday (Nov 11) spells bad news for the country’s economy and its relations with the United States, where Donald Trump won the presidency last week, said analysts.
Monday’s vote in parliament went to a runoff for the first time in 30 years when no candidate was able to muster majority support in the first round.
Observers said this shows Ishiba is a “weak leader”, which Trump could see as a stark contrast to the late Shinzo Abe. 
Abe was Japan’s prime minister during most of Trump’s first term in office between 2017 and 2021. 
“Trump remembers very well how sturdy, strong and trustworthy his pal Shinzo Abe was,” said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a specially appointed professor at the University of Tsukuba.
“Ishiba must counter the shadow of Shinzo Abe. For the moment, Donald Trump is not going to pay much attention, I’m afraid, to Ishiba,” added Taniguchi, who is also a special advisor at think tank Fujitsu Future Studies Centre.
The parliamentary vote came two weeks after Ishiba was battered in a snap general election, which he had called shortly after being named premier.
His scandal-tarnished coalition, comprising the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and smaller partner Komeito, lost the parliamentary majority it had held in the lower house since 2012. Ishiba is now beholden to small opposition parties to pass his policy agenda.
Among a slate of upcoming international engagements that include the Group of 20 summit in Brazil, Ishiba is trying to arrange a stopover in the US to meet Trump. Both men spoke for the first time last week by telephone, when Ishiba congratulated Trump on his election victory.
Some Japanese officials fear Trump might again hit Tokyo with protectionist trade measures and revive demands for the nation to pay more for the cost of stationing US forces there.
These issues were largely smoothed over in Trump’s first term by the close ties between him and Abe.
Abe – who resigned as prime minister in 2020 – had made considerable efforts in forging a personal relationship with Trump.
However, there are “significant differences” between Ishiba and Abe, said Kotaro Tamura, a former senator and parliamentary secretary for economic and fiscal policy under Abe’s first administration.
“Trump likes prime minister Abe because he was a strong leader, winning national elections six times in a row. (This) never happened in Japanese politics, and he was prime minister for almost 10 years,” he told CNA’s East Asia Tonight programme.
In contrast, Ishiba is “not a decisive” leader, he added.
“So, Prime Minister Ishiba (will likely not be) very much loved by Mr Trump as a weak leader, I’m sorry to say,” said Tamura, who is adjunct professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
“Unfortunately, in my opinion, US-Japan relations are (now) quite unclear, not very stable.”
Taniguchi also said that for the moment, he believes it is “nearly impossible” for people to expect Ishiba – with his low public and political support – to display the kind of leadership that should be exhibited by a Japanese premier.
In Monday’s runoff, Ishiba prevailed against his closest challenger Yoshihiko Noda, a former prime minister who heads the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party.
After the ruling coalition’s loss of majority in the lower house, opposition parties have been allocated nine of the 20 lower house committee chairs.
Tamura said this will lead to a “very chaotic” Diet session.
The National Diet is Japan’s legislature that comprises the lower house – the House of Representatives – and the upper house, the House Councillors.
“Nobody knows the answer, nobody knows the potential outcome … so this is very bad for US-Japan relations, and also for the Japanese economy,” said Tamura.
“Business leaders cannot make a long-term investment because the politics is so shaky, and it is going to be more shaky because … next summer, we have an upper house election.”
Japan will hold elections next year for the less powerful upper house. The ruling coalition holds a slim majority there, which could be at risk if Ishiba cannot revive public trust roiled by a scandal over unrecorded donations to lawmakers, which came to light late last year.
Voters have also been frustrated with the high cost of living and stagnant wages.
Having survived the runoff vote, Ishiba said during a press conference on Monday that in light of the latest general election results, he thinks the LDP “needs to be reborn”.
One option he proposed is banning the use of non-taxable funds for political activities. He also said another option is creating a publicly accessible database on political donations, which he hopes to pass into law by the end of the year.
Taniguchi said Ishiba could sell this political funding reform to opposition parties in order to form an ad-hoc coalition.
“The LDP is struggling very much, and that’s going to be a boost for the opposition parties,” he added, pointing to “rampant” rumours that rank-and-file LDP members are set to oppose Ishiba.
“The opposition parties are sensing blood here, and they’re going to be opposed to whatever legislative bills the LDP is going to propose in the next parliamentary sessions.”
Ishiba’s main priority will be to boost public support for the ruling coalition before the upper house election, Taniguchi told CNA’s Asia First.
“Unlike in some other countries like the United Kingdom or India, the upper house in Japan does have a very strong veto power. In the event that the LDP loses the majority there as well, there is going to be a huge paralysis,” he added.
“The next several months will be very much crucial for Ishiba to gain support and trust, once again, from the public. Everything else is secondary.”