Tipperary South constituency profile: Final seat likely to be battle between Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin

Outgoing TDs: New constituency. Outgoing TDs for five-seat Tipperary constituency are Michael Lowry (Ind), Alan Kelly (Lab), Jackie Cahill (FF – retiring), Mattie McGrath (Ind), Martin Browne (SF)
Who are the candidates running in the Tipperary South constituency?
Tipperary South returning officer website
If North Tipp has a dominant independent in Michael Lowry, South Tipp has its own in Mattie McGrath, the former Fianna Fáil TD who has been an independent – re-elected every time – since the financial crash a decade and a half ago. He is favourite to return here.
After that it’s a lot more uncertain. Fine Gael messed up its strategy here for the last two elections but this time has settled on Micheal Murphy, long-time councillor and current mayor of Clonmel, the constituency’s largest population centre. It would be a surprise if Murphy didn’t take a seat. If he does – and assuming McGrath is re-elected – the final seat is likely to come down to a battle between the Fianna Fáil candidate Imelda Goldsboro and the sitting Sinn Féin TD Martin Browne.
Even Browne’s biggest supporters would say that his election last time was a surprise – after a disastrous local election results and internal party divisions, Browne stepped into the breach at a late stage, only to be the beneficiary of the great Mary Lou surge of 2020. Repeating that trick will be difficult.
But just like Lowry hoovered up traditional Fine Gael votes in Tipp North, McGrath gets lots of previously Fianna Fáil votes in the South. Goldsboro topped the poll in the Carrick-on-Suir area in the local elections but to get ahead of Browne she will need to pull votes out of Clonmel too, where former independent TD Seamus Healy is also running again. Healy used to take much of the old Labour Party vote in the town, but Labour is in better shape in the constituency than it was before with Killenaule councillor Michael “Chicken” Brennan running for the party.
Ultimately the last seat is likely to be a shoot-out between these four, with Goldsboro and Browne in the strongest positions to challenge.
Possible outcome: Independent (1), Fine Gael (1), Fianna Fáil (1)